Chart of the Week
“Economists have predicted nine of the last five recessions.”
It is an old line that refers to economists issuing more warnings than truth when it comes to an economic outlook. We discussed the inversion of the yield curve, which means that longer dated Treasuries are yielding less than short-dated Treasuries. Various parts of the curve were inverted earlier this year, but a key one just flipped. Researchers at the New York Federal Reserve noted that the 10-year yield being below the 3-month Treasury bill occurred prior to all of the recessions in the past. While there is hope the economy can void this outlook, it may be the most telegraphed economic downturn in history.
What We’re Reading
A Few Good Stories – Morgan Housel
Trading Secrets: The Fed’s Monkey Business – TCW MetWest
Why holiday shopping is starting even earlier – JLL
5 Mindsets That Create Success – Mark Manson
Podcast of the Week
Juliette Declercq Sees Inflation Peaking & a Decent Economy – On the Margin
The Past Week
On Monday, the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index showed continued expansion for the economy through October. Retail sales surprised on the upside. Housing starts continue to come down but were above expectations. Industrial production and the Philly Fed Business Index showed a contraction.
The Week Ahead
With the holiday shortened week, we will look out over the next two weeks. Durable goods and the Global Purchasing Manufacturing Index reports will give us the last big data points before the holiday. Next week the consumer confidence and jobs reports will be the most widely followed.
We hope you have a Happy Thanksgiving. We will be back next on December 6th.
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