Chart of the Week
Betting against the US consumer is usually not a winning wager.
Households have more money. It started with the stimulus in 2020-21. Now incomes are growing faster. With inflation falling towards a more normal level, spending is at a higher trend level.
While the excess savings may run out in 2025, the runway for this year looks clear.
What We’re Reading
NFL Succession Crisis Forces Teams to Let Private Equity In – Bloomberg
A Few Thoughts on Spending Money – Morgan Housel
Eye on the Market: Five Easy Pieces – JPMorgan
NDR: ‘No recession and a Strong Bull Market’ — Or a ‘Recession and a Bust for the Fed’ – Institutional Investor
Podcast of the Week
Interview with Yours Truly (Michael McKeown) on the CFA Society Cleveland podcast – Guardians of Finance
Last Week
On the heels of a stellar jobs report, the data last week shows a growing economy. The services data beat expectations. Jobless claims came in lower than expected. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow, which attempts to show a real-time look at growth this quarter, came in at 3.4%.
The Week Ahead
On the docket we have the inflation report on Tuesday, which is estimated to show an annual inflation rate of 3%. Later in the week we will keep an eye on the Philly Fed Business Index and retail sales. Companies are in the heart of the earnings reporting season. Many consumer companies report this week, which will give us an idea of the status of business fundamentals.
Thank you for reading.
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