Chart of the Week
A bear market is defined as peak to trough fall in total return by over 20%. There have been eleven bear markets since 1956.
At the end of 2023, the eleventh bear market ended as markets hit new all-time highs. The run continued into the first quarter of 2024 as markets recovered.
With sentiment becoming overly positive, equity markets finally took a pause after a five-month rally. Historically, the lowest bull market increase happened in 1966, with a 48% gain. In the first quarter of 2024, the S&P 500 exceeded this with a gain of 50% from the lows in 2022.
What We’re Reading
Lucky vs. Repeatable – Morgan Housel
Eye on the Market: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly – JPMorgan
Consumer Checkpoint for April 2024 – Bank of America
How People Are Really Using GenAI – Harvard Business Review
Podcast of the Week
U.S. Economy FAQ: Skyrocketing Insurance Prices, Stuck Inflation, Higher Rates, and Wrong Experts – Plain English
Last Week
Data generally continues to surprise to the upside. Retail sales were up 0.7% versus expectations of 0.3% in March. Housing slowed down as mortgage rates pushed against multi-decade highs. Jobless claims and the Philly Fed Business Index indicate economic growth remains in an uptrend.
The Week Ahead
Earnings will get the attention this week as 5 of the Magnificent 7 stocks report results. There will also be a large cross-section of other sectors, providing a good reading of where corporate America stands today. On the economic front, we will be watching the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) along with the first quarter estimate for GDP.
Thank you for reading.
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