June 26, 2023

Weekly Market Update

By Michael McKeown, CFA, CPA - Chief Investment Officer

Weekly Market Update

Chart of the Week

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve publishes a monthly report with a real-time snapshot of all 50 states. The 3-month rate of change shows all states growing. In October 2022, the index showed only 44% of states expanding, which typically precede an economic downturn.

Despite calls for recession since mid-2022, there has not been a sustained decline in economic activity. The pain from experiencing the highest inflation in 40 years is the likely culprit for how households and businesses feel. The long and variable lag of interest rates affecting the economy may need more time. Still, housing and larger purchases continue to surprise on the upside, even with jobless claims increasing.

State Coincident Economic Index

What We’re Reading

Why You Believe the Things You Do – Morgan Housel
What Can the CIA Teach Investors? – Behavioral Investment
Views From the Floor – Japan in the Sun Again After Years in the Shade – Man Institute
The World’s Empty Office Buildings Have Become a Debt Time Bomb – Businessweek

Podcast of the Week

James Montier Explains Why Corporate Profits Keep Going Up – Odd Lots, Bloomberg

Last Week

Housing was a bright spot with the National Association of Home Builders survey advancing further into expansion. Building permits and housing starts both came in above expectations. Jobless claims continue rising steadily. Services data pointed to growth while manufacturing contracted in the latest S&P survey.

The Past Week

The Week Ahead

Before the long holiday weekend, plenty of economic data will be released. Consumer confidence and sentiment reports will give another soft datapoint on how households feel. The price data for the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index will be a notable clue on the direction of inflation.

The Week Ahead

Thank you for reading.

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