September 11, 2023

Weekly Market Update

By Michael McKeown, CFA, CPA - Chief Investment Officer

Weekly Market Update

Chart of the Week

Signs of the labor market beginning to slow are evident. Over the last three months, the average payrolls report showed 150,000 jobs added per month, the lowest moving average this cycle. While the unemployment rate of 3.8% is historically low, it is above the lows of 3.4% in April. The median unemployment period has risen to 8.7 weeks, which is higher than earlier in the year. A key indicator is temporary employment, which companies often turn away from first. It shows a decline of 6% over the past year. We think this may get more attention as economists turn to forecasting the economic outlook in 2024.

Temporary Employment

What We’re Reading

Respect and Admiration – Morgan Housel
Cash Is No Longer Trash, but the Opportunity Cost Might Be Greater Than You Think – Morningstar
The End of Airbnb in New York (& Perhaps Elsewhere) – Wired
Diamond Prices Are in Free Fall in One Key Corner of the Market – Bloomberg

Podcast of the Week

What Rising Rates and Surging Insurance Prices Are Doing to Real Estate – Odd Lots

Last Week

Services surprised on the upside while jobless claims declined. After strong retail sales lately, the miss on consumer credit growth brought concerns about the direction of future spending.

The Past Week

The Week Ahead

The focus on Wednesday will be the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The expectation is for a rise of 0.6% from the prior month and increase to 3.6% year-over-year. Later in the week we will see more inflation data with the Producer Price Index (PPI). Retail sales and the sentiment reports will give a glimpse into the latest trends from consumer spending.

The Week Ahead

Thank you for reading.

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