Chart of the Week
Turning the economy off and then back on again wreaked havoc with supply, similar to periods after the 1918 pandemic and World War II. For nearly two years from October 2020 to July 2022, more than 60% of companies had delivery delays. These delays happened for only a few months in the past decade. Today only 47% of deliveries are delayed, near the lowest levels in the survey. The price index followed a similar pattern higher and points to less inflation for manufactures than the past two years.
What We’re Reading
Housing Inflation is Likely Poised to Decelerate by Early 2023 – Zillow Research
3 Takeaways from Big Tech Earnings Results – Morningstar
2023 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions – JPMorgan
Fed Sets Up Pause Not a Pivot – PIMCO
Podcast of the Week
Why the US Housing Market Has Been Such a Yo-Yo – Plain English, The Ringer
The Past Week
The Fed raised interest rates as expected by 0.75%. The statement by the Fed Open Market Committee was more sanguine about the future pace of rate hikes compared to Chairman Powell’s press conference. The economy added 261,000 according to the jobs report. The Purchasing Manufacturers Index (PMI) reports showed expansion but were mixed versus expectorations.
The Week Ahead
Mid-terms will be the main event this week as investors look to interpret the policy outlook. The highly anticipated monthly inflation data release is on Thursday. The key to watch will to be core inflation (which excludes food and energy) to see if the trend remains higher for longer. Consumer sentiment and inventories are two other key reports coming up.
Due to business travel, the next market update will be the week of November 21st.
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