November 27, 2023

Weekly Market Update

By Michael McKeown, CFA, CPA - Chief Investment Officer

Weekly Market Update

Chart of the Week

The Department of Labor usually publishes the jobs report on the first Friday of the month. But because this Friday is the first of December, there is not enough time to compile the data.

Today’s unemployment rate at 3.9% is the highest level since January 2022. This is low by historical standards. The unemployment rate was below 4% for just 48 months in total since 1970 (or less than 8% of the time). Of the seven largest states by population, California had the largest increase in its unemployment rate, rising from 3.8% to 4.8%. Pennsylvania’s improved over the past year, as the level hit a recent cycle low at 3.4%.

The regional differences bear watching as the national trend changes. After inflation took center stage the last two years, it seems the Fed and economists will be more focused on this data in the months ahead. This could lead to more discussion on the path of interest rate cuts in 2024.


State Unemployment Rates

What We’re Reading

The Full Reset – Morgan Housel
Morgan Stanley’s 2024 Housing Outlook Sees 3 Tailwinds for Buyers – Newsweek
Consumer Checkpoint: Households spending slows but checking accounts still flush – BofA
Cash Isn’t Meant for Your Portfolio Forever – The Bottom Line

Podcast of the Week

Ivy Zelman’s 2024 Housing Outlook – CNBC

Last Week

The housing market felt the impact of higher mortgage rates in October, though lower Treasury yields over the past few weeks should help alleviate borrowing pains. Durable goods orders and manufacturing data were worse than expected. Jobless claims and services data beat expectations.

The Past Week

The Week Ahead

Over the next week, we get the second estimate of GDP and the ISM reports, which give a snapshot of the trends in growth.  Price data for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) will be important to see if tame inflation continues.

The Week Ahead

Thank you for reading.

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